Integrative considerations on energy transition
The creation and analysis of energy scenarios - an essential methodology for supporting the necessary sustainable transformation of the energy system - must do justice to the complex socio-technical nature of this system. Therefore, technical, ecological, economic, institutional, organizational and social aspects - also in their interactions - must be considered in equal measure. In the Helmholtz research program Energy System Design (ESD), researchers from the German Aerospace Center (DLR), the Forschungszentrum Jülich (FZJ) and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) have developed an integrative scenario approach that meets these requirements better than most of the energy scenarios that have dominated discussions to date. The approach essentially consists of two elements: 1) the development of so-called socio-technical energy scenarios and 2) the assessment of the effects of these energy scenarios with regard to sustainability indicators. The aim is to improve the decision-making basis for the sustainable transformation of the energy system.
Future energy and infrastructure requirements depend on framework conditions that are difficult to predict
Global developments such as an intensification of current conflicts or the future development of the European Union can influence immigration and thus population development. Due to its global interdependence, the development of the German economy also depends on the global mood on the world markets. Population and economic development have a significant impact on energy demand in Germany. In the analyses carried out, the possible different developments here result in some significant differences in final energy, electricity and hydrogen demand in Germany and in the installed capacity for electricity generation. There is therefore a risk of underestimating or overestimating future energy and infrastructure requirements if energy scenarios are based solely on the development of population and economic output.
The necessary electrification of the energy system requires considerable technical and infrastructural changes as well as decisions on the degree of import dependency
Irrespective of population and economic development, the electrification of production and transportation processes should be at the heart of transformation strategies. This requires comprehensive spatial and temporal flexibility in the electricity sector. For technical reasons, electrification must be supplemented by the use of defossilized hydrogen. However, three quarters of this would be imported. The transformation of the heating sector, on the other hand, requires a combination of energy-efficient building refurbishment, a change of energy source and the expansion of electricity and heating grids. This direct and indirect electrification of the energy system will increase electricity demand from the current 600 TWh to between 1,100 and 1,300 TWh per year by 2045. The expansion of electricity generation from renewable sources in Germany must therefore be accelerated. In the scenarios, an increase in installed photovoltaic capacity to 370 to 435 GW by 2045, onshore wind power capacity to 210 to 220 GW and offshore wind power capacity to 53 to 70 GW is considered necessary. However, agriculture and the industrial sector will continue to produce greenhouse gas emissions in the future that are technically unavoidable as things stand today. The capture of carbon dioxide from power plant and industrial processes, where biomass is predominantly used, and the direct capture of carbon dioxide from the air, together with the geological storage and cycling of carbon dioxide, is seen as a key option for achieving a net-zero emissions target. The development of an infrastructure for effective carbon dioxide management is therefore essential in dealing with unavoidable greenhouse gas emissions.
Taking environmental protection and resource conservation into account in the energy transition is of great importance
The analyses show that a climate-friendly energy system goes hand in hand with a high demand for “critical” raw materials. It is therefore important to develop suitable strategies to meet this demand in an environmentally friendly way and to reduce geopolitical risks. It has also been shown that the transformation of the energy system not only reduces greenhouse gas emissions, but also other environmental impacts. However, negative ecological side effects include the necessary land consumption and associated conflicts of use. The transformation of an energy system therefore requires not only infrastructures for effective carbon dioxide management, but also the handling of non-climate-relevant environmental impacts.
The macroeconomic effects of the transformation are limited; a possible unfair distribution of the resulting burdens and benefits must be counteracted
The analyses show that the transformation strategies examined lead to an increase in domestic value creation in the energy sector, but not to any substantial change in the overall economic demand for labor - despite significant changes in energy-intensive industries. Possible additional burdens for low-income households - depending on socio-economic boundary conditions that are closely linked to energy-related variables - must be minimized in order not to jeopardize the acceptance of the energy transition. The degree of implementation and acceptance of measures to internalize external costs of the system - an important condition for the success of a sustainable transformation - is significantly influenced by political and economic developments as well as the system's capacity for innovation.
