Tomorrow's heating requirements – planned based on data - Helmholtz

Research is being conducted into how large-scale full electrification using heat pumps, rooftop PV, battery storage, and energy management will affect the grid electricity demand of Germany's residential building stock. The study will examine which building characteristics have an influence and what potential and challenges may arise for end customers and grid operators in Germany.

Structure and method of the study.

How is it researched?

A representative data set of 10,000 randomly selected, locally distributed German residential buildings is created and validated.
Each building will be simulated using the bottom-up building simulation tool ETHOS.HiSim with a 15-minute resolution.
This will calculate building-specific full-year load profiles as well as year-end consumption, grid purchases, grid feed-in, and self-sufficiency rates.
The influence of full roof area PV utilization, battery storage, and energy management on grid-related energy demand is examined in comparison to the scenario without PV utilization.
The influence of building type, age, living space, and roof area PV potential is demonstrated.

Daily average values for grid power consumption and feed-in from single-family homes of different construction year classes compared to the scenario without PV use.

What is the benefit for society?

The literature often recommends the widespread use of PV-supported heat pumps.
On the one hand, this study shows the potential for high self-sufficiency rates for homeowners, especially for single-family and terraced houses.
On the other hand, it highlights the challenges for grid operators: high electricity loads in winter, high feed-in loads in summer, and an average annual reduction in grid consumption of around 40%.
This underscores the need for grid expansion and the adjustment of future grid fee regulations.